Cross-Validation of Geophysics Behaviors

The fit to the ENSO model looks like this

(click on any image to expand)

The forcing spectrum like this, with the aliased draconic (27.212d) factor circled:

For QBO, we remove all the lunar factors except for the draconic, as this is the only declination factor with the same spherical group symmetry as the semi-annual solar declination.

And after modifying the annual (ENSO spring-barrier) impulse into a semi-annual impulse with equal and opposite excursions, the resultant model matches well (to first order) the QBO time series.

Although the alignment isn’t perfect, there are indications in the structure that the fit has a deeper significance. For example, note how many of the shoulders in the structure align, as highlighted below in yellow

The peaks and valleys do wander about a bit and might be a result of the sensitivity to the semi-annual impulse and the fact that this is only a monthly resolution. The chart below is a detailed fit of the QBO using data with a much finer daily resolution. As you can see, slight changes in the seasonal timing of the semi-annual pulse are needed to individually align the 70 and 30 hBar QBO time-series data.

This will require further work, especially in considering recently reported perturbations in the QBO periodicity, but it is telling that a shared draconic forcing of the ENSO and QBO models suggests an important cross-validation of the underlying causal mechanism.

Detailed analysis also shows LTE modulation

Another potential geophysical cross-validation …

The underlying forcing of the ENSO model shows both an 18-year Saros cycle (which is an eclipse alignment cycle of all the tidal periods), along with a 6-year anomalistic/draconic interference cycle. This modulation of the main anomalistic cycle appears in both the underlying daily and monthly profile, shown below before applying an annual impulse. The 6-year is clearly evident as it aligns with the x-axis grid 1880, 1886, 1892, 1898, etc.

Daily profile above, monthly next, both reveal Saros cycle

The bottom inset shows that a similar 6-year cycle consistently appears in length-of-day (LOD) analyses, this particular trace from a recent paper: [ Leonid Zotov et al 2020 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 1705 012002 ].

The 6-year cycle in the LOD is not aligned as strictly as the tidal model and it tends to wander, but it seems a more plausible and parsimonious explanation of the modulation than for example in this paper (where the 6-year LOD cycle is “similarly detected in the variations of C22 and S22, the degree-2 order-2 Stokes coefficients of the Earth’s gravitational field”).

Cross-validation confidence improves as the number of mutually agreeing alignments increase. Given the fact that controlled experiments are impossible to perform, this category of analyses is the best way to validate the geophysical models.

Three arguably subjective papers from the last couple of months

From the abstract: Governments agree that the science is settled.

As that title borrows from The Tragedy of Hamlet, here’s an allegory from the music biz

Promoter : “That was one the finest live performances I have ever heard”
Attendee : “But what was that loud hum I heard throughout the concert?”
Promoter : “That was a background cycle that you can ignore”
Attendee : “But why should I ignore it? It was irritating to my ears”
Promoter : “It’s irrelevant to the music itself”
Attendee : “Do you know what caused it?”
Promoter : “Some chaotic noise from the electronics in the background”
Attendee : “If it wasn’t there, wouldn’t the music sound better?”
Promoter : “Yes, but we haven’t been able to adequately isolate the noise from the signal”
Attendee : “Could it be 60 Hertz interference from the main power?”
Promoter : “That’s only a hypothesis and we lack a controlled experiment to rule out wind drafts


“These findings suggest fundamental progress may be stymied if quantitative growth of scientific endeavors—in number of scientists, institutes, and papers—is not balanced by structures fostering disruptive scholarship and focusing attention on novel ideas.”


“To solve today’s problems, climate science and other fields need the world’s best minds, not its greatest specialists.”
“… hiring people from different disciplinary backgrounds, as great ideas often come from forays outside one’s own field”

4 thoughts on “Cross-Validation of Geophysics Behaviors

  1. Really enjoyed this post, 1 in 5 dentists believe that chewing Trident will cause cavities. Oh and on the Equatorial Tidal Anomalies, (keep in mind I am a layman with a twig poking the bear) seems that there may be a correlation to atmospheric patterns. Again they are patterns that seem to be similar, but which pattern is the egg.


  2. Pingback: Understanding is Lacking | GeoEnergy Math

  3. Pingback: The Tragedy of QBO | GeoEnergy Math

  4. Pingback: Cross-Validation of ENSO | GeoEnergy Math

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