High Resolution Analysis of SOI

In Chapter 12 of the book, we have a description of the mechanism forcing the El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior. ENSO shows a rich dynamic behavior, yet for the pressure dipole measure of ENSO, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), we find even greater richness in terms of it’s higher frequency components. Typically, SOI is presented with at least a 30-day moving average applied to the time-series to remove the higher-frequencies, but a daily time-series is also available for analysis dating back to 1991. The high-resolution analysis was not included in the book but we did  present the topic at last December’s AGU meeting.  What follows is an updated analysis …

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Long-Period Tides

In Chapter 12 of the book, we provide a short introduction to ocean tidal analysis. This has an important connection to our model of ENSO (in the same chapter), as the same lunisolar gravitational forcing factors generate the driving stimulus to both tidal and ENSO behaviors. Noting that a recent paper [1] analyzing the so-called long-period tides (i.e. annual, monthly, fortnightly, weekly) in the Drake Passage provides a quantitative spectral decomposition of the tidal factors, it is interesting to revisit our ENSO analysis in the conventional ocean tidal context …

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Autocorrelation of ENSO power spectrum

In Chapter 12 of the book, we have a description of the mechanism forcing the El Nino / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) behavior.  An important ingredient to the modeled forcing  is an annual impulse (with a likely biennial asymmetry) that modulates the hypothesized lunar tidal forcing.  We will show next how to confirm that the annual impulse exists simply by analyzing the ENSO power spectrum …

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Mathematical GeoEnergy, update

The book is now available for pre-order: 1119434297[1]

Amazon: Mathematical Geoenergy: Discovery, Depletion and Renewal

Barnes&Noble: Mathematical Geoenergy: Discovery, Depletion and Renewal

Publisher – Wiley/AGU: Mathematical Geoenergy: Discovery, Depletion and Renewal


Outline and Chapter overviews

Presentations at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in Washington D.C.

Mathematical GeoEnergy

Book will be out next year published by Wiley


This blog will be ramped up for the book, but ContextEarth.com contains all the research leading up to the book.

Two papers at AGU 2017:



Dynamic Context Server

Tropics, poles and reefs

Diagram Monkey

2014, 2015 and 2016 played a recurring theme of El Nino. A tentative El Nino in late 2014 and early 2015 segued with a stutter into a strong El Nino in 2015/2016 dragging global temperatures in train. Temperatures in the tropical Pacific dropped a bit after that and may or may not have slipped into La Nina depending on which agency you listen to, but now, it looks like El Nino might be coming back: surface water temperatures in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of South America, have risen to four or more degrees above average although they’ve not spread further west and a number of seasonal forecasting centres are suggesting that temperatures might continue to rise. No one’s called it an El Nino, yet, but the effects of the elevated sea-surface temperatures are sadly plain to see. Heavy rain in Peru has already led to flooding and all the…

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