When The Oil Drum blog ceases to exist, I will start to add a stream of regular content to the ContextEarth blog. The time frame for The Oil Drum termination is early September, which puts it at next week.

The staff at The Oil Drum were gracious enough to allow me to post a final article on my thoughts and an example of the Oil Shock Model in action. The name of the post is Modeling Bakken Oil Production: The Oil Shock Model Explained.

I used the Dynamic Context Server to generate the Bakken production model

For modeling the Bakken ala the convolution-based shock model, the inputs are two time-series.
1. The forced input is the time series of newly available wells.
2. The response input is the time series of expected decline from a single well.
The convolution function takes the forced input and applies the response input and generates the expected aggregate oil production over time.