https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/5/eabe1358?intcmp=trendmd-adv

Human sleep

https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/7/5/eabe0465?from=article_link

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]]>“Thank you for submitting your manuscript to ESD. Your work caused some resonance and was commented and discussed not only by the referees, but also by other authors. Most of the questions raised were related to the explanation how your ideas differentiate from the previous works. Although you explained it in detail in your response, this explanation required quite a bit of text and figures. Since ESD ideas is a very short communication format, it has no room for all these explanations, I solicit you to submit a classic full-size paper to ESD with all these questions addressed.”

I encourage you to read the discussion commentary to see how these ideas are viewed.

But rejecting the paper because others couldn’t get the simplicity of the idea? A little over the top,

Billy’s comment

“shoehorn ENSO into a periodic tidal framework”

Umm, like duh. Way back in 1776, Laplace developed the now-referred-to Laplace’s Tidal Equations to attempt to model tidal flows, including the effects of Coriolis and lateral forcing. They proved so successful that they were enhanced to form the so-called primitive equations used to approximate atmospheric flow in global atmospheric models. So they are essentially GCMs. So what I did is to derive a compact analytical solution for the LTE along the equator and applied that theoretical model to evaluating the ENSO while using tidal forces as input.

And Billy from NOAA calls that a preconceived theory and motivated reasoning ? I would give up if they weren’t so laughably ignorant about how to do physics.

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]]>http://faculty.washington.edu/kessler/occasionally-asked-questions.html#q5

“Some words of caution on El Niño forecasts.

Written for a middle school class in San Diego at the request of their teacher.

It is important to remember that El Niño is not the only effect on weather. It is but one fluctuation among many, and the weather we experience is the sum of all of these overlaid and interacting.Most of these interactions are poorly understood, particularly the longer-term ones, and as we get longer and longer records we become aware of more and more complexity.The different El Niños occur on different background states, at different times of year, and therefore have different total effects. Therefore, one cannot simply speak of the isolated effects of El Niño on weather in San Diego. There is only the ever-changing combination of influences. That is the main reason why we cannot produce reliable long-term forecasts.Scientists study El Niño partly for its own effects, but also partly as an example of how this kind of climate oscillation interacts with the rest of the climate system. We know there are many such oscillations, and we would like to be able to fit the whole picture together.

We hope that what we learn about the climate system from studying El Niño will help us understand other, less obvious, variability.“

Teaching kids the one and only way

From today Jamie Raskin during impeachment trial twice quoting Ben Franklin

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]]>See what Taleb has to say:

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]]>So for solutions to Navier-Stokes, no one really knows what possibilities remain to be explored on a shallow-water 3-D rotating sphere. In my research, which hopefully will be accepted for this spring’s online EGU, I have discovered a N-S fluid dynamics solution that is analytically similar to Mach-Zehnder modulation. This is good news and bad news — it’s good news because M-Z modulation is a straightforward non-linear formlation, but it’s bad news because M-Z modulation is also used as a highly secure encryption scheme that is very difficult to decode without the nonlinear mapping key (see e.g. twisted light encryption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optical_vortex ) . This means that the model fitting process is computationally intensive because it is essentially a trial-and-error optimizing process using a gradient descent search, if that even gets *close* to the solution range.

Now consider the computational intensity of GCMs and *multiplying* that by the complexity of a non-linear fitting/decryption algorithm — one hasn’t even approached the scale of computational power needed to make headway.

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]]>Working on a forcing model of ENSO using the 1/R^3 lunisolar gravitational potential. Some progress with just a few terms that matches the expanded factor model. The key point is the 1/R^3 formulation creates the higher-order 9 day (Mt), 6 day (Msq), etc terms pic.twitter.com/dk8mU9jNtn

— Puͣkiͧte̍ (@WHUT) February 1, 2021

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]]>LikeLike

]]>Traveling wave offshoot — derived

Townsend, R. H. D. “Improved asymptotic expressions for the eigenvalues of Laplace’s tidal equations.” Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society 497.3 (2020): 2670-2679.

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]]>'The whole universe is very strange, but you see when you look at the details that the rules of the game are very simple – the mechanical rules by which you can figure out exactly what is going to happen when the situation is simple. It is like a chess game.'

-Richard Feynman pic.twitter.com/hLH9bUFA5t

— Paul Halpern (@phalpern) January 17, 2021

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]]>Nothing complicated necessary generate the richness in the response.

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