Global Models of Sea Surface Temperature
These are a set of 6 EOFs that describe the global SST in terms of a set of orthogonal time-series — essentially non-overlapping, each having a cross-correlation of ~0.0 with the others, like a sine/cosine pair, but in both spatial and temporal dimensions.
M1: Corresponds to a NINO index such as NINO34
M2: Corresponds to AMO
M3: Corresponds to PDO
M4: Corresponds to North Pacific Gyre Oscillation and secondarily to El Nino Modoki index
M5: Corresponds to El Nino Modoki index
M6: Corresponds to the Atlantic El Nino
The model fits to each of these all feature the same tidal forcing (shown in the middle panel) and are trained in the interval from 1910 to 2000. Assuming that data prior to 1910 was not complete for every time series, so that was left out. Click on each image to magnify.
```
0.00000000998 :offset:
0.00032308741 :bg:
-4.19341973206 :impA:
0.35971721829 :impB:
-0.52914415285 :impC:
-3.70821156779:delA:
0.00388493938:delB:
0.14540716679:asym:
0.01594849157:ann1:
-2.20073789772:ann2:
-0.00115263065:sem1:
-0.00000078393:sem2:
0.00058429792:year:
-0.57827450787:IR:
0.00014963191 :mA:
-0.01713169249 :mP:
0.06173774791 :shiftT:
0.04009008327 :init:
---- Tidal ----
9.10846048884, 0.00247985217, 0.24202904677, 1, -11, 2.79078891759824E-03
29.53062736412, 0.00177976332, -0.89905914628, 2, -5, 1.86709722566578E-03
27.09267692660, 0.00481303891, -1.31319641711, 3, -1, 4.88550841583621E-03
7.08840372903, 0.00462923891, 1.38709199611, 4, -22, 5.93399658146010E-03
6.85248390316, 0.00591556818, 2.18493932028, 5, 47, 4.02682091286523E-03
13.60611040750, 0.00995166343, -1.08061259387, 6, 0, 9.96121375505186E-03
13.66083077700, 0.31581318707, -2.63049436671, 7, 0, 3.15952064653504E-01
3396.73824406533, 0.00075564784, -0.94840535216, 8, -14, 8.81943701789049E-04
9.12068919638, 0.03494141997, -0.02615968407, 9, 0, 3.49752886714045E-02
13.77727494300, 0.01305749564, 0.42149617068, 10, -2, 1.33696694790510E-02
6793.47648813065, 0.00118579779, 1.94198405981, 11, 1, 1.17021955188122E-03
27.55454988600, 0.08541685821, -1.32664934351, 12, 0, 8.56852729184810E-02
27.66676714572, 0.00736591159, 0.74713809933, 13, 1, 7.31756328717857E-03
27.44323926226, 0.00389026191, 2.58068980426, 14, -13, 4.48560327952359E-03
1616.30271425126, 0.00019566948, -3.10718943062, 15, 21, 1.61380222276656E-04
6.85940288609, 0.01502246140, 1.04981901782, 16, 1, 1.48719845209269E-02
7.09580758905, 0.01677148379, 0.67391912259, 17, -2, 1.70992173274256E-02
9.55688191170, 0.01551079917, -1.10070573014, 18, 1, 1.54173605063359E-02
9.13295078376, 0.08566962341, -0.82873535750, 19, 0, 8.56302730851973E-02
2190.35004466729, 0.00078475485, -2.17162689839, 20, 35, 5.81984672471976E-04
27.21222081500, 0.00177904437, 2.33565494827, 21, 22, 1.46133901478102E-03
9.18484996200, 0.00204498650, 2.48287559466, 22, -11, 2.30783747665313E-03
14.76531368206, 0.02521843210, 0.15160428664, 23, 0, 2.52235673845922E-02
31.81203051902, 0.01552509630, -1.59623717198, 24, 1, 1.54179615070802E-02
9.54345643120, 0.00623113660, 0.09967642810, 25, -2, 6.36688925795869E-03
13.63341568476, 0.12832825131, -1.84769532382, 26, 0, 1.28149176538761E-01
26.98505934729, 0.00288741718, -0.68270335552, 27, -8, 3.14021411295958E-03
5.64270612027, 0.00467356286, 2.10206851405, 28, 2, 4.58616646269133E-03
6167.20701373239, 0.00039011509, -0.03017345974, 29, -17, 4.69996021487511E-04
121.75015756597, 0.00378148522, 2.33761657261, 30, 0, 3.78110593679657E-03
9.61372599372, 0.00683930733, 2.24337627121, 31, 0, 6.80991990027044E-03
3232.60542850251, 0.00116307926, 3.11517286622, 32, 22, 9.55220945211275E-04
---- LTE ----
0.00000000000 :trend:
0.00000000000 :accel:
-0.01560491893 :K0:
0.01399393084 :level:
-0.65633001596, 1.08706656493, -0.48454130334 0
1.35944285913, 0.11080520463, -2.26302376968 0
0.64680944343, 1.05378964341, 0.50915797774 0
1.03011849968, 0.07792708189, -0.88767596157 0
0.27782518608, 0.11286876825, 0.98815430844 0
0.90032523819, 0.10540555930, 2.25083814483 0
-58.37134890772, 0.10903675077, -1.53496823011 1
-233.48539563089, 0.04208337402, -0.25635796779 4
-4085.99442354061, 0.18991338083, 0.99518918685 70
-3210.42418992476, 0.05703755464, 2.33357150215 55
-3735.76633009427, 0.06555505279, -2.37101998790 64
```
CC 0.7514740750 0.3671188181 4 1
0.99995876752:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo> ../io/restore m1-1910-2000pt73pt41pt999959
```
0.00000000993 :offset:
0.00032310015 :bg:
-4.19904202799 :impA:
0.35882581584 :impB:
-0.52955363605 :impC:
-3.70820809248:delA:
0.00388493938:delB:
0.14540716679:asym:
0.01594845233:ann1:
-2.20076389123:ann2:
-0.00115266422:sem1:
-0.00000078443:sem2:
0.00058429770:year:
-0.58738991231:IR:
0.00015088908 :mA:
-0.01713170303 :mP:
0.06173774791 :shiftT:
0.04008996263 :init:
---- Tidal ----
9.10846048884, 0.00248200899, 0.24192266024, 1, -11, 2.79078891759824E-03
29.53062736412, 0.00177937897, -0.89905345643, 2, -5, 1.86709722566578E-03
27.09267692660, 0.00480977886, -1.31383111079, 3, -2, 4.88550841583621E-03
7.08840372903, 0.00462908664, 1.38708761896, 4, -22, 5.93399658146010E-03
6.85248390316, 0.00591558080, 2.18916006975, 5, 47, 4.02682091286523E-03
13.60611040750, 0.00995238218, -1.08048258034, 6, 0, 9.96121375505186E-03
13.66083077700, 0.31581147729, -2.63049436671, 7, 0, 3.15952064653504E-01
3396.73824406533, 0.00075398601, -0.94840617779, 8, -15, 8.81943701789049E-04
9.12068919638, 0.03494125759, -0.02615967254, 9, 0, 3.49752886714045E-02
13.77727494300, 0.01305940315, 0.42149390501, 10, -2, 1.33696694790510E-02
6793.47648813065, 0.00118579779, 1.94305631019, 11, 1, 1.17021955188122E-03
27.55454988600, 0.08541698533, -1.32665489502, 12, 0, 8.56852729184810E-02
27.66676714572, 0.00736567899, 0.74712520499, 13, 1, 7.31756328717857E-03
27.44323926226, 0.00389025561, 2.58209308874, 14, -13, 4.48560327952359E-03
1616.30271425126, 0.00019570404, -3.10718795654, 15, 21, 1.61380222276656E-04
6.85940288609, 0.01502240384, 1.04993352281, 16, 1, 1.48719845209269E-02
7.09580758905, 0.01677206209, 0.67338612971, 17, -2, 1.70992173274256E-02
9.55688191170, 0.01551088865, -1.10069718009, 18, 1, 1.54173605063359E-02
9.13295078376, 0.08566948952, -0.82874117909, 19, 0, 8.56302730851973E-02
2190.35004466729, 0.00078488910, -2.17162336391, 20, 35, 5.81984672471976E-04
27.21222081500, 0.00177282698, 2.33571526195, 21, 21, 1.46133901478102E-03
9.18484996200, 0.00204439880, 2.48164992932, 22, -11, 2.30783747665313E-03
14.76531368206, 0.02522264735, 0.15154363081, 23, 0, 2.52235673845922E-02
31.81203051903, 0.01552514569, -1.59623693939, 24, 1, 1.54179615070802E-02
9.54345643120, 0.00624255302, 0.09966994578, 25, -2, 6.36688925795869E-03
13.63341568476, 0.12832823252, -1.84769209298, 26, 0, 1.28149176538761E-01
26.98505934729, 0.00290450851, -0.68548514274, 27, -8, 3.14021411295958E-03
5.64270612027, 0.00467103624, 2.10212826761, 28, 2, 4.58616646269133E-03
6167.20701373239, 0.00039049888, -0.03017357008, 29, -17, 4.69996021487511E-04
121.75015756590, 0.00378225327, 2.33761158521, 30, 0, 3.78110593679657E-03
9.61372599372, 0.00683930733, 2.24347526865, 31, 0, 6.80991990027044E-03
3232.60542850251, 0.00116198904, 3.11517218626, 32, 22, 9.55220945211275E-04
---- LTE ----
0.00000000000 :trend:
0.00000000000 :accel:
-3.72561280283 :K0:
-7.28023976112 :level:
-0.42984974007, 0.23620950497, 0.15395853907 0
1.52764654184, 0.09818286775, -2.82475601609 0
0.34461185815, 0.35291385273, 0.09651142639 0
1.76018992423, 0.13495277551, 2.38118809547 0
0.85325291987, 0.08320307140, -1.30867187209 0
0.01985290302, 32.19390336616, 0.23457829665 0
-58.37131301242, 0.01168777035, -0.88756760487 1
-291.85656506211, 0.09154037934, -1.43792669890 5
-1109.05494723603, 0.04257063979, -2.60384032250 19
-1225.79757326088, 0.17396567610, -0.62173492874 21
-1400.91151229814, 0.05888628755, 2.26579442119 24
```
CC 0.7643475275 0.4529836729 8 1
0.99995875492:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo> ../io/restore m2-1910-2000pt76pt45pt999959
``
0.00000000271 :offset:
0.00032324094 :bg:
-5.03387990647 :impA:
0.34855647757 :impB:
-0.75424785626 :impC:
-3.70820975073:delA:
0.00300210183:delB:
0.14540683439:asym:
0.00514355996:ann1:
-2.85219852003:ann2:
-0.00104787236:sem1:
0.00000155273:sem2:
0.00058466391:year:
-0.38435382623:IR:
0.06173774791 :shiftT:
0.02589868411 :init:
---- Tidal ----
9.10846048884, 0.00248164176, 0.24274675689, 1, -11, 2.79078891759824E-03
29.53062736173, 0.00177648640, -0.90091654514, 2, -5, 1.86709722566578E-03
27.09267692660, 0.00480590971, -1.31769103722, 3, -2, 4.88550841583621E-03
7.08840372875, 0.00463078022, 1.38708964585, 4, -22, 5.93399658146010E-03
6.85248390316, 0.00591627582, 2.18930403292, 5, 47, 4.02682091286523E-03
13.60611040750, 0.00995462048, -1.08060743857, 6, 0, 9.96121375505186E-03
13.66083077700, 0.31581344300, -2.63046602551, 7, 0, 3.15952064653504E-01
3396.73824406533, 0.00075408578, -0.94690693539, 8, -14, 8.81943701789049E-04
9.12068919638, 0.03494142093, -0.02617101031, 9, 0, 3.49752886714045E-02
13.77727494300, 0.01305894071, 0.42173977630, 10, -2, 1.33696694790510E-02
6793.47648813065, 0.00118589319, 1.94305725845, 11, 1, 1.17021955188122E-03
27.55454988600, 0.08541713069, -1.32664730252, 12, 0, 8.56852729184810E-02
27.66676714572, 0.00736491847, 0.74714367576, 13, 1, 7.31756328717857E-03
27.44323926226, 0.00389808793, 2.58240033299, 14, -13, 4.48560327952359E-03
1616.30271425126, 0.00019693408, -3.12754511824, 15, 22, 1.61380222276656E-04
6.85940288609, 0.01502001285, 1.04976191214, 16, 1, 1.48719845209269E-02
7.09580758877, 0.01677120745, 0.67337740338, 17, -2, 1.70992173274256E-02
9.55688191120, 0.01551280344, -1.10138651660, 18, 1, 1.54173605063359E-02
9.13295078376, 0.08566948952, -0.82874048861, 19, 0, 8.56302730851973E-02
2190.35004466729, 0.00077778788, -2.16966194830, 20, 34, 5.81984672471976E-04
27.21222081500, 0.00177100476, 2.33781141766, 21, 21, 1.46133901478102E-03
9.18484996200, 0.00204954292, 2.47646864548, 22, -11, 2.30783747665313E-03
14.76531368086, 0.02522254562, 0.15152209394, 23, 0, 2.52235673845922E-02
31.81203051347, 0.01552396920, -1.59615538645, 24, 1, 1.54179615070802E-02
9.54345643070, 0.00624199991, 0.09888516446, 25, -2, 6.36688925795869E-03
13.63341568476, 0.12832812101, -1.84771207928, 26, 0, 1.28149176538761E-01
26.98505934729, 0.00291796822, -0.68570820702, 27, -7, 3.14021411295958E-03
5.64270612009, 0.00467187094, 2.10212822772, 28, 2, 4.58616646269133E-03
6167.20701373239, 0.00039078030, -0.02751779790, 29, -17, 4.69996021487511E-04
121.75015768797, 0.00378227699, 2.33761469354, 30, 0, 3.78110593679657E-03
9.61372599321, 0.00683930904, 2.24343812771, 31, 0, 6.80991990027044E-03
3232.60542850251, 0.00116711457, 3.11513154255, 32, 22, 9.55220945211275E-04
---- LTE ----
0.00000000000 :trend:
0.00000000000 :accel:
0.00472370973 :K0:
0.03039428648 :level:
-0.51019670275, 0.14579094143, -1.05891485487 0
2.53701214178, 0.05083330372, 1.03558839453 0
0.87609013287, 0.61201635953, -2.94330760251 0
0.92335726855, 3.03255814486, 3.12610654272 0
0.27916120303, 0.19458013862, -0.73025021789 0
0.91511042043, 3.63314978641, 0.01224475705 0
-58.37108151810, 0.05700539500, -1.40581507771 1
-3502.26489108627, 0.13892746012, 1.76078490928 60
-175.11324455431, 0.08496776200, 1.75014937233 3
-3910.86246171300, 0.07154200743, -1.07195387959 67
-3619.00705412248, 0.14001762464, -2.94312687725 62
```
CC 0.7680168094 0.1132274647 6 1
0.99995883018:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo> ../io/restore m3-1910-2000pt757pt11pt999959
```
0.00000001801 :offset:
0.00032310610 :bg:
-3.28859848148 :impA:
0.36767845518 :impB:
-0.64223330095 :impC:
-3.70818937021:delA:
0.00388493938:delB:
0.14540908441:asym:
0.01437401485:ann1:
0.00152706144:ann2:
-0.00300668039:sem1:
-0.27308868888:sem2:
0.00058421450:year:
-0.41304207009:IR:
-0.01713171991 :mP:
0.06173774791 :shiftT:
0.03614036611 :init:
---- Tidal ----
9.10846048884, 0.00248222147, 0.24361444358, 1, -11, 2.79078891759824E-03
29.53062736467, 0.00177750717, -0.89738399451, 2, -5, 1.86709722566578E-03
27.09267692660, 0.00480479810, -1.31388228326, 3, -2, 4.88550841583621E-03
7.08840372909, 0.00462874030, 1.38726880006, 4, -22, 5.93399658146010E-03
6.85248390316, 0.00592041853, 2.18796192603, 5, 47, 4.02682091286523E-03
13.60611040750, 0.00994869546, -1.08078963823, 6, 0, 9.96121375505186E-03
13.66083077700, 0.31580964474, -2.63049598126, 7, 0, 3.15952064653504E-01
3396.73824406533, 0.00075032452, -0.94760035042, 8, -15, 8.81943701789049E-04
9.12068919638, 0.03494099624, -0.02616027714, 9, 0, 3.49752886714045E-02
13.77727494300, 0.01305770828, 0.42126941850, 10, -2, 1.33696694790510E-02
6793.47648813065, 0.00118544028, 1.94276646016, 11, 1, 1.17021955188122E-03
27.55454988600, 0.08541524132, -1.32662919140, 12, 0, 8.56852729184810E-02
27.66676714572, 0.00736556980, 0.74845105907, 13, 1, 7.31756328717857E-03
27.44323926226, 0.00388411631, 2.57800696355, 14, -13, 4.48560327952359E-03
1616.30271425126, 0.00019260508, -3.09790673541, 15, 19, 1.61380222276656E-04
6.85940288609, 0.01501278735, 1.05052058444, 16, 1, 1.48719845209269E-02
7.09580758911, 0.01677196548, 0.67348496022, 17, -2, 1.70992173274256E-02
9.55688191181, 0.01551324256, -1.10062061506, 18, 1, 1.54173605063359E-02
9.13295078376, 0.08566942621, -0.82874335868, 19, 0, 8.56302730851973E-02
2190.35004466729, 0.00078369144, -2.18259831311, 20, 35, 5.81984672471976E-04
27.21222081500, 0.00177142847, 2.33596097096, 21, 21, 1.46133901478102E-03
9.18484996200, 0.00204812293, 2.48217777895, 22, -11, 2.30783747665313E-03
14.76531368233, 0.02521830907, 0.15129089945, 23, 0, 2.52235673845922E-02
31.81203052029, 0.01552592114, -1.59631735211, 24, 1, 1.54179615070802E-02
9.54345643131, 0.00623633736, 0.10008429629, 25, -2, 6.36688925795869E-03
13.63341568476, 0.12833219953, -1.84772414050, 26, 0, 1.28149176538761E-01
26.98505934729, 0.00290272370, -0.68463425584, 27, -8, 3.14021411295958E-03
5.64270612031, 0.00466810137, 2.10177703760, 28, 2, 4.58616646269133E-03
6167.20701373239, 0.00039097854, -0.03062841944, 29, -17, 4.69996021487511E-04
121.75015753817, 0.00378225791, 2.33761874423, 30, 0, 3.78110593679657E-03
9.61372599383, 0.00683927567, 2.24348058222, 31, 0, 6.80991990027044E-03
3232.60542850251, 0.00116074959, 3.11316997839, 32, 22, 9.55220945211275E-04
---- LTE ----
0.00000000000 :trend:
0.00000000000 :accel:
32915.93338607200 :K0:
-63473.77509259643 :level:
3.12992088856, 0.05556519081, 2.09548531748 0
-1.23738157639, 0.07896379208, -0.91849393900 0
2.15731597679, 0.06252397110, -0.71810013436 0
-0.00012478625, 41981743.04243797060, 0.00151194008 0
-2.62309912357, 0.06234915233, 2.65413262455 0
4.18137175791, 0.03438506166, -2.14630282137 0
-58.37125549877, 0.04888034012, 0.51500288320 1
-2393.22147544963, 0.11223172498, -1.72826998183 41
-2801.82026394103, 0.05759107769, -1.72893347522 48
-2509.96398644717, 0.08780085882, -1.01277782039 43
-3852.50286291892, 0.19082566136, 1.21203110844 66
```
CC 0.7839275633 -0.0339199951 4 1
0.99995858552:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo> ../io/restore m4-1910-2000pt78pt-0pt999959
```
0.00000000424 :offset:
0.00032325958 :bg:
-3.59457709243 :impA:
0.32938409570 :impB:
-0.84540602115 :impC:
-3.70819877662:delA:
0.00300210183:delB:
0.14540718887:asym:
0.02658722752:ann1:
-0.04301766751:ann2:
-0.00000946695:sem1:
0.00002243863:sem2:
0.00058462844:year:
-0.32550567226:IR:
0.00015302685 :mA:
-0.01713177475 :mP:
0.06173776597 :shiftT:
0.04267294055 :init:
---- Tidal ----
9.10846048884, 0.00248116448, 0.24396645028, 1, -11, 2.79078891759824E-03
29.53062736196, 0.00176841865, -0.90278185362, 2, -5, 1.86709722566578E-03
27.09267692660, 0.00480585431, -1.31749657889, 3, -2, 4.88550841583621E-03
7.08840372878, 0.00462908708, 1.38715644665, 4, -22, 5.93399658146010E-03
6.85248390316, 0.00591591109, 2.18942627862, 5, 47, 4.02682091286523E-03
13.60611040750, 0.00995176808, -1.08064662136, 6, 0, 9.96121375505186E-03
13.66083077700, 0.31581033000, -2.63047303796, 7, 0, 3.15952064653504E-01
3396.73824406533, 0.00075389323, -0.94751528183, 8, -15, 8.81943701789049E-04
9.12068919638, 0.03494111259, -0.02614980167, 9, 0, 3.49752886714045E-02
13.77727494300, 0.01306314116, 0.42142849140, 10, -2, 1.33696694790510E-02
6793.47648813065, 0.00118609071, 1.94308693562, 11, 1, 1.17021955188122E-03
27.55454988600, 0.08541749123, -1.32653560128, 12, 0, 8.56852729184810E-02
27.66676714572, 0.00736430708, 0.74700457802, 13, 1, 7.31756328717857E-03
27.44323926226, 0.00389387319, 2.58097059060, 14, -13, 4.48560327952359E-03
1616.30271425126, 0.00019154236, -3.10959549393, 15, 19, 1.61380222276656E-04
6.85940288609, 0.01502753716, 1.05020780700, 16, 1, 1.48719845209269E-02
7.09580758880, 0.01676842391, 0.67332578838, 17, -2, 1.70992173274256E-02
9.55688191125, 0.01551493177, -1.10109862734, 18, 1, 1.54173605063359E-02
9.13295078376, 0.08566946164, -0.82874025875, 19, 0, 8.56302730851973E-02
2190.35004466729, 0.00077822085, -2.17156577231, 20, 34, 5.81984672471976E-04
27.21222081500, 0.00176838516, 2.33477846463, 21, 21, 1.46133901478102E-03
9.18484996200, 0.00205229435, 2.47736571594, 22, -11, 2.30783747665313E-03
14.76531368098, 0.02522304912, 0.15157988438, 23, 0, 2.52235673845922E-02
31.81203051401, 0.01554095766, -1.59626517283, 24, 1, 1.54179615070802E-02
9.54345643074, 0.00624225675, 0.09966876000, 25, -2, 6.36688925795869E-03
13.63341568476, 0.12832929412, -1.84770204693, 26, 0, 1.28149176538761E-01
26.98505934729, 0.00292269079, -0.68726477455, 27, -7, 3.14021411295958E-03
5.64270612011, 0.00467117520, 2.10230138801, 28, 2, 4.58616646269133E-03
6167.20701373239, 0.00039048174, -0.02888766165, 29, -17, 4.69996021487511E-04
121.75015767615, 0.00378216737, 2.33761968441, 30, 0, 3.78110593679657E-03
9.61372599326, 0.00683932333, 2.24342720249, 31, 0, 6.80991990027044E-03
3232.60542850251, 0.00116644171, 3.11465206320, 32, 22, 9.55220945211275E-04
---- LTE ----
0.00000000000 :trend:
0.00000000000 :accel:
0.01629025157 :K0:
-0.02772127336 :level:
1.02033530102, 0.15176861598, 0.02079786419 0
-0.96529117252, 0.11631012527, 0.26316916520 0
2.39807664307, 0.08292307927, -2.02200242997 0
0.34600291012, 0.07410245376, -0.18564893107 0
-2.91941669060, 0.08138404626, -0.19191383504 0
2.21391382605, 0.04269002789, -1.14519264695 0
-58.37106864833, 0.02794361634, 2.02054162718 1
-2159.72953998826, 0.08353318608, -0.30257045572 37
-817.19496107664, 0.05038400305, -0.14216000181 14
-4027.60373673486, 0.19256731799, -0.19387974675 69
-3210.40877565823, 0.09570110917, -1.21690310059 55
```
CC 0.7270044304 0.2204812549 8 1
0.99995877059:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo> ../io/restore m5-1910-2000pt724pt218pt999959
```
0.00000001243 :offset:
0.00032309434 :bg:
-2.36251687205 :impA:
0.36817595530 :impB:
-0.82571106963 :impC:
-3.70822691072:delA:
0.00388493938:delB:
0.14542619236:asym:
0.01127710657:ann1:
-2.49568033649:ann2:
0.00256440731:sem1:
-0.00000007596:sem2:
0.00058422947:year:
-0.58951109893:IR:
0.00015066801 :mA:
-0.01713171857 :mP:
0.06173773631 :shiftT:
0.00646434985 :init:
---- Tidal ----
9.10846048884, 0.00247907591, 0.24255712325, 1, -11, 2.79078891759824E-03
29.53062736457, 0.00178213156, -0.90002927326, 2, -5, 1.86709722566578E-03
27.09267692660, 0.00480463657, -1.31499212543, 3, -2, 4.88550841583621E-03
7.08840372908, 0.00462307177, 1.38643423642, 4, -22, 5.93399658146010E-03
6.85248390316, 0.00591426185, 2.19522770177, 5, 47, 4.02682091286523E-03
13.60611040750, 0.00995856110, -1.08022035001, 6, 0, 9.96121375505186E-03
13.66083077700, 0.31580275294, -2.63048815346, 7, 0, 3.15952064653504E-01
3396.73824406533, 0.00075430607, -0.94904409222, 8, -14, 8.81943701789049E-04
9.12068919638, 0.03493936211, -0.02619300004, 9, 0, 3.49752886714045E-02
13.77727494300, 0.01305464347, 0.42203070357, 10, -2, 1.33696694790510E-02
6793.47648813065, 0.00118573948, 1.94269992019, 11, 1, 1.17021955188122E-03
27.55454988600, 0.08541076015, -1.32660134611, 12, 0, 8.56852729184810E-02
27.66676714572, 0.00736841685, 0.74692762476, 13, 1, 7.31756328717857E-03
27.44323926226, 0.00388443499, 2.58274730117, 14, -13, 4.48560327952359E-03
1616.30271425126, 0.00019742521, -3.08102852964, 15, 22, 1.61380222276656E-04
6.85940288609, 0.01504291682, 1.04987885630, 16, 1, 1.48719845209269E-02
7.09580758910, 0.01677060867, 0.67231794688, 17, -2, 1.70992173274256E-02
9.55688191179, 0.01551415812, -1.10059673175, 18, 1, 1.54173605063359E-02
9.13295078376, 0.08566958517, -0.82873890845, 19, 0, 8.56302730851973E-02
2190.35004466729, 0.00078767303, -2.17141401604, 20, 35, 5.81984672471976E-04
27.21222081500, 0.00176902735, 2.33436461624, 21, 21, 1.46133901478102E-03
9.18484996200, 0.00205230551, 2.47695535524, 22, -11, 2.30783747665313E-03
14.76531368228, 0.02522451035, 0.15152054085, 23, 0, 2.52235673845922E-02
31.81203052006, 0.01552552580, -1.59612651711, 24, 1, 1.54179615070802E-02
9.54345643129, 0.00623594469, 0.09961787669, 25, -2, 6.36688925795869E-03
13.63341568476, 0.12833507093, -1.84765177241, 26, 0, 1.28149176538761E-01
26.98505934729, 0.00291551671, -0.68368136298, 27, -7, 3.14021411295958E-03
5.64270612030, 0.00466933697, 2.10439967550, 28, 2, 4.58616646269133E-03
6167.20701373239, 0.00038924709, -0.02991792534, 29, -17, 4.69996021487511E-04
121.75015754316, 0.00378216864, 2.33755095102, 30, 0, 3.78110593679657E-03
9.61372599381, 0.00683916779, 2.24340202229, 31, 0, 6.80991990027044E-03
3232.60542850251, 0.00116074338, 3.11264866040, 32, 22, 9.55220945211275E-04
---- LTE ----
0.00000000000 :trend:
0.00000000000 :accel:
0.00108189790 :K0:
-0.03501769307 :level:
-0.67782629436, 0.03933173459, -1.93178087021 0
2.68188097416, 0.03768383381, -1.94633228500 0
0.41381507413, 0.05447438021, 0.67795367136 0
1.33466406509, 0.05746867663, -2.26131895860 0
1.18472295878, 0.08851763920, -1.07759201081 0
4.93690532435, 0.02361781218, -0.86198613460 0
-58.37126006442, 0.02883352101, -2.50786787265 1
-2918.56300322122, 0.06305099825, 0.73127680268 50
-3093.67678341450, 0.16998293966, -2.21876374084 53
-1225.79646135291, 0.07686303380, -1.76273139678 21
-4085.98820450971, 0.10065839426, -1.32201390010 70
-393363.92157415650, 0.10247250137, -3.00562600389 6739
```
CC 0.8572418930 0.2282167376 1 1
0.99995869578:dLOD:
PS C:\Users\pp\github\pukpr\GeoEnergyMath\qbo> ../io/restore m6-1910-2000pt856pt232pt999959
Note that even though the correlation coefficients are not always that large on the test interval, it doesn’t take much change on the input parameters to make it much higher without impacting the original training interval. This indicates a great degree of structural sensitivity in the model
Status: 7 2 0.83925 -0.37822 # 13330
```
0.00000000965 :offset:
0.00032311606 :bg:
-2.77050941388 :impA:
0.35473372308 :impB:
-0.75686521420 :impC:
-3.70822984138:delA:
0.00388493938:delB:
0.14542710422:asym:
0.02305488525:ann1:
-2.26725766944:ann2:
-0.00598712000:sem1:
-0.00000000142:sem2:
0.00058420951:year:
-0.48153271399:IR:
0.00014944519 :mA:
-0.01713171860 :mP:
0.06173773477 :shiftT:
0.00903668389 :init:
---- Tidal ----
9.10846048884, 0.00247802322, 0.24212644685, 1, -11, 2.79078891759824E-03
29.53062736470, 0.00178480570, -0.89937150074, 2, -4, 1.86709722566578E-03
27.09267692660, 0.00480383773, -1.31480854309, 3, -2, 4.88550841583621E-03
7.08840372909, 0.00462237608, 1.38592782433, 4, -22, 5.93399658146010E-03
6.85248390316, 0.00591048962, 2.19550675509, 5, 47, 4.02682091286523E-03
13.60611040750, 0.00995702945, -1.08034028729, 6, 0, 9.96121375505186E-03
13.66083077700, 0.31579889266, -2.63049218314, 7, 0, 3.15952064653504E-01
3396.73824406533, 0.00075407473, -0.95023137679, 8, -14, 8.81943701789049E-04
9.12068919638, 0.03493906699, -0.02619762103, 9, 0, 3.49752886714045E-02
13.77727494300, 0.01305739705, 0.42195898427, 10, -2, 1.33696694790510E-02
6793.47648813065, 0.00118564946, 1.94259878069, 11, 1, 1.17021955188122E-03
27.55454988600, 0.08540931377, -1.32653458527, 12, 0, 8.56852729184810E-02
27.66676714572, 0.00736632436, 0.74717008059, 13, 1, 7.31756328717857E-03
27.44323926226, 0.00388510478, 2.58343185807, 14, -13, 4.48560327952359E-03
1616.30271425126, 0.00020079548, -3.07892104615, 15, 24, 1.61380222276656E-04
6.85940288609, 0.01504502944, 1.05002269431, 16, 1, 1.48719845209269E-02
7.09580758911, 0.01677085374, 0.67248150416, 17, -2, 1.70992173274256E-02
9.55688191182, 0.01551797622, -1.10079142697, 18, 1, 1.54173605063359E-02
9.13295078376, 0.08566959184, -0.82873978185, 19, 0, 8.56302730851973E-02
2190.35004466729, 0.00078953126, -2.17250633391, 20, 36, 5.81984672471976E-04
27.21222081500, 0.00177026951, 2.33441321033, 21, 21, 1.46133901478102E-03
9.18484996200, 0.00204996905, 2.47725904685, 22, -11, 2.30783747665313E-03
14.76531368235, 0.02522506988, 0.15156884159, 23, 0, 2.52235673845922E-02
31.81203052037, 0.01552431027, -1.59615190609, 24, 1, 1.54179615070802E-02
9.54345643132, 0.00623666802, 0.10039208045, 25, -2, 6.36688925795869E-03
13.63341568476, 0.12833625877, -1.84764638490, 26, 0, 1.28149176538761E-01
26.98505934729, 0.00291590932, -0.68328185821, 27, -7, 3.14021411295958E-03
5.64270612031, 0.00466802308, 2.10445508813, 28, 2, 4.58616646269133E-03
6167.20701373239, 0.00038906307, -0.02988234851, 29, -17, 4.69996021487511E-04
121.75015753650, 0.00378224317, 2.33757191706, 30, 0, 3.78110593679657E-03
9.61372599384, 0.00683912530, 2.24338867748, 31, 0, 6.80991990027044E-03
3232.60542850251, 0.00116021705, 3.11355882341, 32, 21, 9.55220945211275E-04
---- LTE ----
0.00000000000 :trend:
0.00000000000 :accel:
0.01212473389 :K0:
0.00012199303 :level:
-0.47149811940, 1.25184471391, 0.14955285943 0
3.80325071789, 0.03518534700, 3.10953647692 0
0.46860936211, 1.26470862166, -0.11947960384 0
1.35485729151, 0.07408520174, -2.27147736778 0
1.16323449549, 0.08900178367, -1.32525737870 0
4.90429991411, 0.03582098255, -1.79932107650 0
-58.37125996195, 0.03402993673, -1.80614038920 1
-2918.56299809748, 0.06260484638, -2.17411695914 50
-3093.67677798333, 0.16616807576, -2.25487292380 53
-1225.79645920094, 0.04854735600, -0.74968723594 21
-4085.98819733647, 0.09507259648, 2.60837569053 70
-393363.92088357848, 0.10502611791, -0.87157538498 6739
```
CC 0.8392226067 -0.3805845151 7 1
0.99995870725:dLOD:
There’s much promise in applying a common tidal forcing to each time-series but tuning the standing-wave response uniquely, as it reduces the degrees-of-freedom that would potentially lead to over-fitting.
A logical next-step in multivariate statistical analysis: perform varimax rotation to explore whether the data admit detection of slightly more physically meaningful components (i.e. factor analysis with varimax rotation rather than accepting principal components analysis as a stopping point rather than a step on a course to refinement).
A few of the top components won’t change much with varimax rotation because they’re such dominant sources of variation, but the lower components will change (some quite sensitively).
Then compare results for different fields (e.g. temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind, etc.) or work with joint fields (demands development or at least customization of superior methods beyond the conventional forefront).
With the right combination of quantitative education, time, resources, and teamwork, big advances look feasible. It could be a rewarding project for young teams starting out fresh with solid quantitative foundations. I wish them safety, security, sufficient wealth, and enduring good health so they can reach their potential.