Global Forcing, Local Modulation Revealed

Gemini — Conversation with Gemini

The two CSV files are for NINO4 (lte_results) and MSL at Warnemunde (lte_results11). The 1st column is a shared time base. The 3rd column is data, and 2nd column is a model that takes a nearly shared 4th column (a hidden latent forcing manifold) and applies non-autonomous sinusoidal modulations to the 4th column to arrive at the 2nd column. In each case, the model matches the data very well despite there being little correlation to the time-series. It is known that El Nino have far-reaching effects but little is know on the common-modes of expression. Deep think about how this can be further explicated.

The results from your provided data clearly confirm your premise. When we compare the raw Data (Column 3) for NINO4 and Warnemünde Mean Sea Level (MSL), there is virtually no correlation (Pearson r≈−0.0878). However, looking at the hidden latent forcing manifold (Column 4), the signals are nearly identical, showing a massive correlation of r≈0.9775.

Line graphs showing three columns: Original Data (top), Model (middle), and Latent Forcing Manifold (bottom) with time on the x-axis ranging from 1850 to 2025. Original Data and Model columns display variations using variable orange lines with blue reference lines for NINO4 and Warremunde MSL data. The Latent Forcing Manifold shows fluctuations in latent values with similar color coding.

This is a profound observation. It suggests that two geographically and dynamically distinct systems—equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures and Baltic/North Sea coastal water levels—are actually synchronized to the same low-dimensional global “pacemaker,” despite their raw time-series appearing entirely decoupled.

To further explicate this finding, we can break the “deep think” into three primary dimensions: Physical Mechanisms, Mathematical/Dynamical Explication, and Future Analytical Pathways.

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Forcing selection

Top graph showing the composed sum of 31 tidal factors from 1936 to 2004, displaying periodic fluctuations in blue tones.
The two images attached are a lunar-oriented forcing cycle for model of ENSO (top) and another lunar-oriented forcing cycle for LOD of Earth’s rotation (bottom). Analyze the modulation and consider that for the top curve the primary cycle is the draconic 27.2122 day period and for the bottom curve the primary cycle is the 13.6608 day Mf period. Do best to give a physical basis for why this might occur.

The Perplexity response:

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GEM-LTE modeling

February 2026 Cross-Validation Experiments: GEM-LTE Mean Sea Level and Climate Index Modelling

Executive Summary

GEM-LTE/experiments/Feb2026 at main · pukpr/GEM-LTE

This directory contains results from a comprehensive cross-validation study applying the GEM-LTE (GeoEnergyMath Laplace’s Tidal Equation) model to 79 tide-gauge and climate-index time series spanning the 19th through early 21st centuries. The defining constraint of this study is a common holdout interval of 1940–1970: the model is trained exclusively on data outside this thirty-year window, and each subdirectory’s lte_results.csv and *site1940-1970.png chart record how well the trained model reproduces the withheld record.

The headline finding is that a single latent tidal manifold—constructed from the same set of lunisolar forcing components across all sites—achieves statistically significant predictive skill on the 1940–1970 interval for the great majority of the tested locations, with Pearson correlation coefficients (column 2 vs. column 3 of lte_results.csv) ranging from r ≈ 0.72 at the best-performing Baltic tide gauges to r ≈ 0.12 at the most challenging Atlantic stations. Because the manifold is common to every experiment while the LTE modulation parameters are fitted individually to each series, the cross-site pattern of validation performance is informative about which physical mechanisms link regional sea level (or climate variability) to the underlying lunisolar forcing—and about the geographic basin geometry that shapes each site’s characteristic amplitude response.


The GEM-LTE Model: A Common Latent Manifold with Variable LTE Modulation

read more below, and contribute here: Discussions · pukpr/GEM-LTE · Discussion #6

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Hoyer Metric in LTE Model Fitting

Modern signal processing and system identification frequently require quantifying the sparseness or “peakiness” of vectors—such as power spectra. The Hoyer metric, introduced by Hoyer [2004], is a widely adopted measure for this purpose, especially in the context of nonnegative data (like spectra). This blog post explains the Hoyer metric’s role in fitting models in the context of LTE, its mathematical form, and provides references to its origins.


What Is the Hoyer Sparsity Metric?

Given a nonnegative vector (𝐱=[x1,x2,,xn]\mathbf{x} = [x_1, x_2, \dots, x_n]), the Hoyer sparsity is defined as:

Hoyer(𝐱)=n𝐱1𝐱2n1]\text{Hoyer}(\mathbf{x}) = \frac{\sqrt{n} – \dfrac{\|\mathbf{x}\|_1}{\|\mathbf{x}\|_2}}{\sqrt{n} – 1} ]

Where:

  • |𝐱|1=i=1n|xi||\mathbf{x}|_1 = \sum_{i=1}^{n} |x_i| is the L1 norm (sum of absolute values).
  • |𝐱|2=(i=1nxi2)1/2|\mathbf{x}|_2 = \left(\sum_{i=1}^{n} x_i^2 \right)^{1/2} is the L2 norm (Euclidean norm).
  • nn is the length of the vector.

The Hoyer metric ranges from 0 (completely distributed, e.g., flat spectrum) to 1 (maximally sparse, only one element is nonzero).


Why Use the Hoyer Metric in Fitting?

In signal processing and model fitting, especially where spectral features are important (e.g., EEG/MEG analysis, telecommunications, and fluid dynamics in the context of LTE), one often wants to compare not only overall power but the prominence of distinct peaks (spectral peaks) in data and models.

The function used in the LTE model, Hoyer_Spectral_Peak, calculates the Hoyer sparsity of a vector representing the spectrum of the observed data. When used in fitting, it serves to:

  • Quantify Peakiness: Models producing spectra closer in “peakiness” to the data will better mirror the physiological or system constraints.
  • Regularize Models: Enforcing a match in sparsity (not just in power) can avoid overfitting to distributed, non-specific solutions. It’s really a non-parametric modeling approach
  • Assess Structure Beyond RMS or Mean: Hoyer metric captures distribution shape—crucial for systems with sparse or peaky energy distributions.

Hoyer Metric Formula in the Code

The provided Ada snippet implements the Hoyer sparsity for a vector of LTE manifold data points. Here’s the formula as used:

    -- Hoyer_Spectral_Peak
    --
    function Hoyer_Spectral_Peak (Model, Data, Forcing : in Data_Pairs) return Long_Float is
      Model_S : Data_Pairs := Model;
      Data_S : Data_Pairs := Data;
      L1, L2 : Long_Float := 0.0;
      Len : Long_Float;
      RMS : Long_Float;
      Num, Den : Long_Float;
      use Ada.Numerics.Long_Elementary_Functions;
   begin
      ME_Power_Spectrum
        (Forcing => Forcing, Model => Model, Data => Data, Model_Spectrum => Model_S,
         Data_Spectrum => Data_S, RMS => RMS);
      Len := Long_Float(Data_S'Length);
      for I in Data_S'First+1 ..  Data_S'Last loop
         L1 := L1 + Data_S(I).Value;
         L2 := L2 + Data_S(I).Value * Data_S(I).Value;
      end loop;
      L2 := Sqrt(L2);
      Num := Sqrt(Len) - L1/L2;
      Den := Sqrt(Len) - 1.0;
      return Num/Den;
   end Hoyer_Spectral_Peak;  



Hoyer(𝐱)=ni=1nxii=1nxi2n1\text{Hoyer}(\mathbf{x}) = \frac{\sqrt{n} – \frac{\sum_{i=1}^{n} x_i}{\sqrt{\sum_{i=1}^{n} x_i^2}}}{\sqrt{n} – 1}

Where all (xi0x_i \geq 0). This is exactly as described in Hoyer’s paper.


Example Usage

Suppose the observed spectrum is more “peaky” than the model spectrum. By matching the Hoyer metric (alongside other criteria), the fitting procedure encourages the model to concentrate energy into peaks, better capturing the phenomenon under study.

For the LTE study here, the idea is to non-parametrically apply the Hoyer metric to map the latent forcing manifold to the observed climate index time-series, using Hoyer to optimize during search. This assumes that sparser stronger standing wave resonances act as the favored response regime — as is observed with the sparse number of standing waves formed during ENSO cycles (a strong basin wide standing wave and faster tropical instability waves as described in Chapter 12 of Mathematical Geoenergy).

Time series data visualization for Site #11, showing model and actual values from 1850 to 2025.

Using the LTE gui, the Hoyer metric is selected as H, and one can see that the lower right spectrum sharpens one or more spectral peaks corresponding to the Fourier series of the LTE modulation of the center right chart.

A user interface for an LTE Runner application displaying time series data and analysis results. The interface includes graphs for time series validation, latent forcing layers, running windowed correlation, and power spectrum modulation, along with regression statistics and model data comparisons.

It’s non-parametric in the sense that the LTE modulation parameters are not specified, as they would need to be for the correlation coefficient metric that I ordinarily use. The index here (#11) is the Warnemunde MSL time-series.


Citation and References

The Hoyer sparsity metric was introduced in:

  • Hoyer, P. O. (2004). “Non-negative matrix factorization with sparseness constraints.” Journal of Machine Learning Research, 5(Nov):1457–1469. [Link: JMLR Paper]

For further applications in neural data and spectral analysis, you may see usage such as:

  • Bruns, A. (2004). “Fourier-, Hilbert- and wavelet-based signal analysis: Are they really different approaches?” Journal of Neuroscience Methods, 137(2):321-332.

Conclusion

The Hoyer metric is a robust, intuitive, and well-cited tool for quantifying sparsity in spectra or model parameters—encouraging interpretable, physiologically plausible solutions when fitting models to data. It seems to work better than similar metrics such as entropic complexity, see reference below, where I tried applying it in the same LTE problem solution domain.


Reference:

  • Hoyer, P.O., “Non-negative matrix factorization with sparseness constraints,” JMLR, 5:1457–1469, 2004.\
  • Pukite, P., & Bankes, S. (2011). Entropic Complexity Measured in Context Switching. In Applications of Digital Signal Processing. InTech. https://doi.org/10.5772/25520

Let me know if you’d like code snippets, visualization examples, or more advanced mathematical discussion!