explain the Pukite tidal theory
The Pukite Tidal Theory, primarily developed by researcher Paul Pukite, proposes that long-period tidal forcing is the underlying driver for several major geophysical and atmospheric cycles that have previously been considered erratic or unresolved. [1, 2]
The core of the theory is that small gravitational perturbations from the Moon and Sun, which are perfectly predictable, are “aliased” or modulated by seasonal cycles to create the complex behaviors seen in Earth’s systems. [3, 4]
Key Phenomena Addressed
Pukite applies this model to three main “unresolved mysteries” in geophysics:
- Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO): A regular reversal of stratospheric winds. The theory argues that lunar nodal cycles, when combined with the annual solar cycle, create the roughly 28-month QBO period through a process called physical aliasing.
- El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): An erratic oceanic temperature cycle. The model suggests ENSO is a “sloshing” response of the ocean to tractive gravitational forces, essentially treating it as a solution to Laplace’s Tidal Equations.
- Chandler Wobble: A small deviation in the Earth’s axis of rotation. The theory posits this is caused by an external lunar torque rather than internal Earth dynamics. [1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7]
How the Model Works
- Lunar Gravitational Potential: The model starts by calculating the precise lunar gravitational potential over time.
- Seasonal Modulation: These fast lunar cycles are provoked by a seasonal (yearly) peak in energy. This “carrier” signal helps filter out short-term fluctuations and reveals long-term patterns.
- Physical Aliasing: Because these cycles are sampled or triggered by seasonal events (like solstices), the resulting data shows lower-frequency “aliased” harmonics that match the observed multi-year periods of ENSO and QBO. [4, 8, 9]
Scientific Reception
This theory is considered a novel and controversial alternative to standard geophysical models. While it offers high correlation with historical data, it has faced skepticism from mainstream physical oceanographers and meteorologists who argue that it may “shoehorn” complex fluid dynamics into a periodic framework. Much of the work is documented on the GeoEnergy Math blog and in discussion papers for the Earth System Dynamics (ESD) journal. [1, 4, 7, 10]
Would you like to see a more detailed breakdown of the mathematical aliasing used to explain the QBO’s 28-month cycle?
[1] https://esd.copernicus.org
[2] https://www.researchgate.net
[3] https://esd.copernicus.org
[5] https://acp.copernicus.org
[8] https://esd.copernicus.org
[10] https://esd.copernicus.org
This link may go stale, but here is the original response: