Unified Model of Earth Dynamics

Lorenz turned out to be a chaotic dead-end in understanding Earth dynamics. Instead we need a new unified model of solid liquid dynamics focusing on symmetries of the rotating earth, applying equations of solid bodies & fluid dynamics. See Mathematical Geoenergy (Wiley, 2018).

Should have made this diagram long ago: here’s the ChatGPT4 prompt with the diagramming plugin.

Graph

Ocean Tides and dLOD have always been well-understood, largely because the mapping to lunar+solar cycles is so obvious. And the latter is getting better all the time — consider recent hi-res LOD measurements with a ring laser interferometer, pulling in diurnal tidal cycles with much better temporal resolution.

That’s the first stage of unification (yellow boxes above) — next do the other boxes (CW, QBO, ENSO, AMO, PDO, etc) as described in the book and on this blog, while calibrating to tides and LOD, and that becomes a cross-validated unified model.


Annotated 10/11/2023

ontological classification according to wavenumber kx, ky, kz and fluid/solid.


Added so would not lose it — highlighted tidal factor is non-standard

Geophysically Informed Machine Learning for Improving Rapid Estimation and Short-Term Prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters

Annual vs Semi-annual

ENSO models best with alternating sign semi-annual pulses. Operating on the Mf tidal factor this generates a tight forcing with average period 3.8 years.

AMO models best with an annual pulse. Because of the Mt tidal factor the forcing slowly wanders with a period of ~120 years.

PDO models best with an annual pulse but fast decay. Because of the Mt tidal factor the forcing would wander like AMO, but instead it makes biased excursions.

To summarize, the models of ENSO, AMO, and PDO depend on the specific forcing character while keeping the LOD tidal calibration fixed. ENSO likely requires this alternating semi-annual because it is aligned along the equator and so alternates with northern and southern nodal swings. AMO and PDO may require an annual impulse because it’s essentially a northern hemisphere behavior. Why the decay is faster for PDO, or what exactly sets the decay rate after an integrating impulse, is not clear. Perhaps the larger the inertial push the slower the response.