The Oil Drum post

When The Oil Drum blog ceases to exist, I will start to add a stream of regular content to the ContextEarth blog. The time frame for The Oil Drum termination is early September, which puts it at next week.

The staff at The Oil Drum were gracious enough to allow me to post a final article on my thoughts and an example of the Oil Shock Model in action. The name of the post is Modeling Bakken Oil Production: The Oil Shock Model Explained.

I used the Dynamic Context Server to generate the Bakken production model

For modeling the Bakken ala the convolution-based shock model, the inputs are two time-series.
1. The forced input is the time series of newly available wells.
2. The response input is the time series of expected decline from a single well.
The convolution function takes the forced input and applies the response input and generates the expected aggregate oil production over time.

2 thoughts on “The Oil Drum post

  1. Does your graph mean that after 714 stays the same? In other words, for every well abandoned a new one is brought online? Since the key to continued production is the number of new wells brought online combined with the productivity of those wells (which I assume will be a declining function), have you ever thought about modeling those factors?

    btw, thanks for all your work. I’m a fan.


  2. Yes, the graph does mean that after 714 the number stays the same. Because of the data provided by the NoDak DMR, this also means that the number of new wells has to equal the number of old wells that are becoming “shut-in” or abandoned.

    In other words, this is the response to a cessation of Red Queen acceleration. The steady-state of replenishing wells one-for-one (new with abandoned) will cause a new level less than half the current Red Queen level.

    Rune Likvern shows what happens with a simple ramp of new wells with no acceleration


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