A go-to place for ENSO and El Nino discussions is the Azimuth Project and its open source coding collaboration on predicting El Nino events.
The forum is for threaded discussions: http://azimuth.mathforge.org/
I have been hanging out there, as the collaborative environment is conducive to generating analysis ideas.
The most recent discussion thread I started concerns QBO and ENSO:
Another is on ENSO Proxy records, incorporating historical paleoclimate data from Michael Mann and others.
I will continue to write summaries of the progress on this blog.
The thing to remember when perusing the El Nino topics in the forum is that not everyone is taking the same approach. The main branches are:
- Evaluating and reproducing teleconnection approaches
- Looking at delay differential equations and the messy Lorenz chaotic formulations
- Data mining via machine learning concepts on the Earth’s volumetric satellite data
- Yours truly’s sloshing dynamics approach using Mathiue-type differential equations.
There is a significant difference between 2 and 4 in the analytical and computational complexity. I think my approach is much more tractable and it may be on the verge of producing some predictive power by piggybacking on the more periodic QBO.