ENSO and AMO, a standing wave phase change?

Using as few independent parameters as possible, the difference in characterizing the temporal behavior of ENSO and AMO may amount to a standing-wave phase change. Noted earlier that ENSO and AMO can be derived from a common lunisolar forcing — and have now found that the LTE modulation is not that fundamentally different between the two.

The (nearly) common forcing

with the applied LTE of a 180° phase difference

leads to adequately fitted models to the respective time series

The fact that the fundamental (and 7th harmonic) are aligned between ENSO and AMO strongly suggest that the standing-wave wavenumbers are not governed by the basin geometry but are more of a global characteristic that remains coherent across the land masses. The Atlantic basin has a smaller width than the Pacific so intuitively one might have predicted unique wavenumbers that would fit within the bounding coastlines, but this is perhaps not the case.

Instead, the LTE modulation wraps around the earth and produces an anti-phase relationship in keeping with the approximately 180° longitudinal difference between the Atlantic and Pacific.

  • ENSO ~ sin (k F(t))
  • AMO ~ sin (k F(t) + π + ϕ)

Any additional phase shift ϕ can also easily produce the anomalously large multidecadal variations in the AMO due to the biasing properties of the sinusoidal LTE modulation.

Just a matter of time until machine-learning algorithms start discovering these patterns. But, alas, they may not know how to deal with the findings

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