Nonlinear long-period tidal forcing with application to ENSO, QBO, and Chandler wobble

Model fitting process for ENSO

Back to EGU abstract and presentation


Addendum: After this presentation was submitted, a ground-breaking paper by a group at the University of Paris came on-line. Their paper, “On the Shoulders of Laplace” covers much the same ground as the EGU presentation linked above.

Their main thesis is that Pierre-Simon Laplace in 1799 correctly theorized that the wobble in the Earth’s rotation is due to the moon and sun, described in the treatise “Traité de Mécanique Céleste (Treatise of Celestial Mechanics)“.


Excerpts from the paper “On the shoulders of Laplace”

Moreover Lopes et al claim that this celestial gravitational forcing carries over to controlling cyclic climate indices, following Laplace’s mathematical formulation (now known as Laplace’s Tidal Equations) for describing oceanic tides.

Excerpt from the paper “On the shoulders of Laplace”

This view also aligns with the way we model climate indices such as ENSO and QBO via a solution to Laplace’s Tidal Equations, as described in the linked EGU presentation above.


3 thoughts on “Nonlinear long-period tidal forcing with application to ENSO, QBO, and Chandler wobble

  1. Pingback: Low #DOF ENSO Model | GeoEnergy Math

  2. Power spectrum of input tidal forcing

    Strengths ranked following Ray’s LOD estimates. Numbered are primary and ranked ABCD are compound factors.

    Interesting that the #6 & #7 nodal (18.6y period) satellites around Mm are not as strong as predicted/

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Pingback: Inverting non-autonomous functions | GeoEnergy Math

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